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Weaponized Interdependence

Geopolitics

Trade wars, supply chains, and the collision of national interest with global markets — who holds leverage and who pays the price.

31 analyses in this section

Jul 9 STATE

The World Splinters Into Blocs, Not Borders

Global trade is not collapsing; it is being rewired. The world is sorting into overlapping economic patches — U.S.-led, China-centered, BRICS+, and a plurilateral trade web — while middle powers hedge, connector economies absorb diverted flows, and military redlines harden from Hormuz to Guyana. The result is not deglobalization but a messier, more expensive form of integration shaped by geopolitical sentiment as much as by geography.

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  • News Apr 18 CAPITAL

    The Market Priced In Peace

    Ten days into a fragile Iran ceasefire, the S&P 500 has surged to all-time highs, erasing every dollar lost since the war began. Oil has crashed twice. Earnings are beating. But the Strait of Hormuz is still barely open, enrichment talks have collapsed, and the IMF just cut global growth. The market is pricing a resolution that does not yet exist — and the bet is either brilliant or catastrophic.

  • News Mar 20 STATE

    Israel Hits South Pars; Brent Settles at $109

    Israel struck Iran's South Pars natural gas field Wednesday, triggering immediate Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure. Brent crude spiked to $118 before settling at $109—its highest close since July 2022—as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively sealed, threatening a supply shock that emergency reserves cannot fix.

  • News Mar 11 STATE

    The World Is Building a Trade System Without America

    The European Union and the 12-nation CPTPP bloc are negotiating what could become the largest trade alliance in history. Led by Canada and catalyzed by U.S. tariff escalation, the emerging structure threatens to reroute global supply chains permanently around the United States.

  • News Mar 6 STATE

    How Iran Closed Hormuz With Drones, Not Warships

    Iran achieved what decades of military doctrine deemed impossible — shutting the Strait of Hormuz without a single naval blockade vessel. By deploying cheap drones near commercial shipping lanes, Tehran triggered insurance cancellations that collapsed tanker traffic 91% in five days, creating the worst energy chokepoint crisis since the 1973 embargo.

  • News Jan 19 STATE

    Trump Tariffs Target NATO Allies Over Greenland

    President Trump announced 10% tariffs on Denmark, Germany, France, the UK, and four other NATO members starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June unless the US acquires Greenland. The move follows Operation Arctic Endurance, a Danish-led military exercise that deployed European troops to the Arctic territory this week, marking the first instance of a NATO ally threatening punitive economic measures against partners for collective defense activities.