China Splits G20 Trade Fight, Not Iran Talks

Edition · desks

• Auckland, New Zealand Local 16:02 · Thu · working now Auckland's Thursday afternoon is still living inside Wednesday's OCR print — the RBNZ lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.75% for a second straight meeting, then framed the move as reducing the need for more aggressive increases later, and the NZX 50 closed up about 1% to 13,930. The kiwi sold the hike as terminal-rate bets unwound, leaving NZD softer even as equities cheered the friendlier tone. For a trade-exposed island economy the session is domestic tightening colliding with Hormuz-driven tradable inflation the bank cannot fix.

  NBR — NZX 50 rallies as RBNZ softens future hikes · interest.co.nz — RBNZ lifts OCR 25bp to 2.75 percent · FXStreet — Kiwi sells the hike on gradual path · interest.co.nz — Breman says further OCR timing uncertain

• Sydney, Australia Local 14:02 · Thu · working now Sydney's Thursday session is a bounce that finally cleared 9,000 again — the ASX 200 pushed higher with industrials helping after Wednesday's roughly 1% drop to a 20-day low, even as Aussie 10-year yields sat near 5.19% and iron ore slipped. Brent hovered near $95 and stronger June GDP still keeps September RBA hike odds elevated around 60%. Pitt Street is trying to separate a one-day equity rebound from a cash-rate path that Hormuz inflation can still force.

  ABC News — ASX 200 pushes back above 9,000 · Motley Fool AU — Aussie 10-year yields back at 2011 highs · Market Index — ASX 200 futures point to bounce · ABC News — Corporate Travel Management plunges hard

• Tokyo, Japan Local 13:02 · Thu · working now Tokyo's Thursday morning opened as a repair job — the Nikkei jumped roughly 400 points at the open after Wednesday's nearly 3% rout and a 10-year JGB print above 3%, then faded as the yen strengthened toward the mid-158s. Banks found relative support while chip names stayed fragile and export earnings faced a firmer yen. The session is whether 3% JGBs become a new floor that taxes earnings, or a one-day inflation scare before the September BOJ.

  47NEWS — Nikkei opens about 399 points higher · 47NEWS — Morning gain fades after open rebound · Zai FX — Yen firms toward 158 as exporters watch · Asahi — 10-year JGB yield still near 3% floor

• Seoul, South Korea Local 13:02 · Thu · working now Seoul's Thursday open is a 4% hangover rebound — the KOSPI reclaimed 6,600 with morning gains near 1.5% after Wednesday's close at 6,562.72, when foreigners and institutions dumped nearly ₩4 trillion and Samsung and SK hynix slid more than 4%. Softened oil and Wall Street's bounce helped, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's overnight talk of targeted chip tariffs that spare U.S. production reopened the build-or-pay overhang. Yeouido morning is whether bargains stick under 6,600 or whether policy risk keeps the chip complex on the back foot into U.S. payrolls.

  Businesskorea — KOSPI rebounds above 6,600 on tech buying · Aju Press — Chip rebound after Wednesday 4% rout · Aju Press — Lutnick signals targeted semiconductor tariffs · MoneyToday — Foreign and institutions dumped nearly 4 trillion won

• Shanghai, China Local 12:02 · Thu · working now Shanghai's Thursday tape is a tentative oil-bruise repair — CSI 300 and the Composite try to claw back Wednesday's roughly 1–1.7% drops as Caixin flags rising sales with falling profits and soft retail loan quality. Private PMI back in expansion offers a domestic offset, but Hormuz crude and the global bond selloff still tax growth and AI hardware names. The morning question is whether banks and infrastructure keep the tape together while margin strain keeps the slow-bull story fragile.

  Caixin Global — A-share margins squeeze as sales rise · Caixin Global — Banks report rising retail bad loans · Yicai Global — Private factory PMI back in expansion · RTHK — Mainland shares slipped hard Wednesday on oil

• Taipei, Taiwan Local 12:02 · Thu · working now Taipei's Thursday open is a repair job after Wednesday's oil-rate crash — the TAIEX opened about 161 points higher at 46,325 after foreigners dumped more than NT$90 billion and electronics led the scare. Strong August manufacturing PMI and TSMC's packaging expansion still underline AI fundamentals, but rate-sensitive semis remain hostage to Fed hike odds and Hormuz headlines. The morning tape is whether breadth holds without TSMC doing all the heavy lifting.

  Focus Taiwan — TAIEX opens higher after Wednesday rout · Focus Taiwan — Foreigners dumped more than NT$90 billion · Taipei Times — Manufacturing PMI hits five-year high · Taipei Times — Trading accounts hit record as rebound builds

• Hong Kong, China (SAR) Local 12:02 · Thu · working now Hong Kong's Thursday open catches Asia's relief rally — the Hang Seng jumped about 0.7% at the open as Wall Street rebounded and oil edged off highs, after Wednesday left the index roughly flat and Hang Seng Tech soft while CSI 300 fell hard. Shein's weak follow-through still colors IPO confidence under the dollar peg's high-rate transmission. The morning is whether Alibaba and Tencent can hold a bounce without A-share confirmation if Hormuz traffic stays thin.

  TMTPost — Hang Seng opens about 0.7% higher · RTHK — Wednesday Hang Seng flat as oil and bonds bite · The Standard — Shein soft second-day tape still weighs · Business Times — Asia relief as Trump shortens war talk

• Manila, Philippines Local 12:02 · Thu · working now Manila's Thursday tape is a three-way bind: PSEi soft after a 0.67% Wednesday drop to 6,053, peso at a fourth straight record low near ₱62.565, and local bond yields lifting with U.S. Treasuries as oil rekindles BSP inflation risk. Fresh Hormuz casualties among Filipino crew sharpen the seafarer and remittance political channel even before slower remittance growth fully feeds through. The session watches BSP verbal-intervention appetite versus imported-energy pass-through.

  Manila Times — Peso hits fourth straight record low · Philstar — PSEi falls as peso keeps depreciating · Inquirer — Shares fall on renewed US-Iran hostilities · GMA — Two Filipino seafarers killed on Sidr tanker

• Singapore, Singapore Local 12:02 · Thu · working now Singapore's Thursday open inherits relative strength and fresh oil uncertainty — the STI rose 0.6% Wednesday even as Tokyo and Seoul cratered, while Thursday's tape watches Brent ease toward $95 as Hormuz escort volumes and dark-ship flows remain the real supply tell. Banks carried Wednesday's lonely green close; shipping still prices chokepoint risk from Hormuz into the Red Sea. Raffles Place is treating the city-state as a relative-value banking bid inside an Asia risk-off map, not a clean bill of health.

  Business Times — STI rises 0.6% as Asia slumps Wednesday · CNA — Oil edges down on US-Iran strike uncertainty · Straits Times — Asian markets tumble as fighting lifts oil · Straits Times — Hormuz to Red Sea chokepoint risk for Singapore

• Jakarta, Indonesia Local 11:02 · Thu · working now Jakarta's Thursday open inherits a milder bruise than Northeast Asia — IHSG only nudged lower Wednesday while peers cratered, with commodity beta cushioning oil-driven risk-off even as the rupiah trades defensively near the high-17,000s on hawkish Fed talk. Policy tape stays loud: renewables acceleration amid the oil shock and finance ministry signals of roughly 7% investment growth. The session trades the tension between exporter windfalls and subsidy or inflation politics under Prabowo.

  ANTARA — IHSG softens as oil pressures global peers · ANTARA — Government accelerates renewables amid oil shock · Tempo — Rupiah seen weak through September on Fed · ANTARA — Finance ministry targets seven percent investment growth

• Bangkok, Thailand Local 11:02 · Thu · working now Bangkok's Thursday desk is energy-first: Brent near $95 keeps strain on the Oil Fuel Fund even as analysts flag a triple threat of geopolitics, politics, and regulation with SET sitting below 1,600 after Wednesday's slide. September volatility maps still box the index roughly where energy hedges compete with tourism damage from Gulf disruption. Baht and CPI path remain the BOT's choke points if Hormuz stays effectively closed into peak travel season.

  Bangkok Post — Thai stocks face triple threat, ASPS warns · Nation Thailand — Oil fund deficit strains energy policy · Bangkok Post — September SET volatility expected to rise · Nation Thailand — Bangkok summit aims to reset investor confidence

• Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Local 11:02 · Thu · working now Ho Chi Minh City's Thursday narrative is the post-holiday reopen meeting FTSE plumbing — the VN-Index closed the pre-holiday week near 1,832 after seven gains and now eyes 1,850 with heavier profit-taking risk, while September 21's secondary EM go-live still anchors the month. First-tranche passive inflows look modest versus year-to-date foreign selling, so sentiment and free-float reform matter more than the headline upgrade. Dong and VN-Index trade the gap between factory FDI strength and portfolio-flow skepticism amid the regional oil shock.

  Vietnam News — VN-Index may test 1,850 after holiday reopen · Vietnam News — Seven-session streak ended week near 1,832 · VnExpress — FTSE emerging upgrade still anchors September · The Investor — Holiday reopen meets Asia risk-off hangover