Credit Desks Cool on AI Debt After the Ballot Shock

Iran–Hormuz stalemate The Strait of Hormuz remains sharply depressed, with traffic reportedly about 65% below pre-conflict levels and a tanker fire classified as an attack, while Iran links any diplomatic opening to ending the US blockade and sanctions. Washington says major strikes may be avoidable if talks progress, but the unresolved bargain keeps global energy shipping exposed.

Gulf security and aviation Houthi forces continue firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, with interceptions, damage risks and online schooling in Riyadh adding civilian pressure; airlines have extended suspensions on Gulf routes, including Etihad services to Riyadh and Dammam through November 19. The conflict is now disrupting both infrastructure and regional mobility.

Iran-linked infrastructure sabotage France has blamed an IRGC-linked unit for manipulating refrigeration systems at roughly 700 retailers, while investigators have traced similar vulnerabilities toward equipment used in the US and UK. The campaign extends the conflict into food loss, fire risk and civilian operational technology.

Ukraine talks under fire US-, Russian- and Ukrainian-led talks in Abu Dhabi completed their first day and were described by Washington as productive, with prisoner exchanges, the return of children and security guarantees discussed; a second day is due to continue. The gap remains large over Donetsk and the postwar security framework, while strikes and winter attacks on energy facilities keep pressure on Kyiv.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear risk A drone strike killed workers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear and nearby thermal plants; off-site power has returned, but repeated attacks and grid outages continue to narrow the margin for safe cooling and complicate stabilization of Europe’s largest nuclear site.

Russia’s refinery and fuel strain A Ukrainian drone attack damaged major processing units at the Kirishi refinery while Rosneft capped fuel sales in six regions, adding domestic supply pressure as energy infrastructure becomes part of the wider war and peace-talk agenda.

West Bank settler violence October recorded 457 settler attacks causing casualties or property damage, the highest monthly total since UN records began, while harvest-related assaults and new settlement construction intensify displacement and land insecurity alongside Gaza’s emergency.

Sudan’s civilian services crisis Drone strikes on power and fuel systems are cutting electricity to hospitals, halting dialysis and stranding aid convoys, while 15.4 million people urgently need shelter and only about 10% can currently be assisted. The war’s infrastructure targeting is deepening both the health emergency and the world’s largest displacement crisis.

Northern Ethiopia fighting Renewed clashes in Tigray have produced sharply conflicting military casualty claims, while reported drone strikes have killed civilians and disrupted hospitals, power and communications. The unresolved Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation threatens to reopen a postwar settlement and drive new displacement.

Myanmar offensive and border spillover The junta’s Yan Naing Min offensive to retake Rakhine has struck a bridge, homes and a temporary clinic, killing civilians, while Thailand prepares shelters near the Salween. Nationwide displacement is approaching 3.8 million as attacks continue to push people across and toward borders.

Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado displacement Armed-group violence displaced more than 7,000 people in the latest four-week period and has pushed more than 205,000 people into displacement sites, extending a severe protection and assistance burden in northern Mozambique.

Horn of Africa flood displacement Flooding across Somalia and Kenya has affected about 2.5 million people, forced roughly 334,000 Somalis from their homes and affected about 100,000 people in Kenya; continuing rain threatens further displacement and blocked humanitarian access.

Asian flood and typhoon emergency Thailand’s prolonged floods still affect roughly 163,000 people, while new flooding, landslides and bridge damage span Sumatra, Malaysia and central Vietnam; Malaysia’s evacuee count more than doubled and relief centres are exceeding capacity in places. The wider region remains under pressure from an unusually energetic typhoon and extreme-rain season.

Peru and Bolivia El Niño emergencies Peru has declared a broad emergency as El Niño-linked flooding and landslides threaten more than nine million people, while Bolivia’s national emergency response covers severe-weather risks affecting families and livestock across six departments.

El Niño water, power and food stress Strong El Niño conditions are expected into early 2027, linking flood, drought and heat risks: the Philippines has set aside more than $980 million for agriculture after an 18% fall in rice production, while Sri Lanka expects a drought-driven hydropower squeeze that could force costlier thermal generation.

Indonesia fire and haze crisis El Niño-amplified fires across Indonesian forests and peatlands have affected roughly 1.9 million hectares, exposing tens of millions to hazardous haze spilling into Malaysia and Singapore. Fire-linked respiratory illness remains widespread, with children especially vulnerable.

COP31’s implementation test Nearly 200 countries are opening COP31 amid record heat, floods, wildfire smoke and El Niño stresses, but disputes over climate finance and low expectations sharpen the test of whether emissions, adaptation and resilience pledges become measurable delivery.

Measles resurgence Bangladesh has reported 1,357 new suspected cases in a day, with 1,289 combined suspected and confirmed deaths since March, while the US has reached at least 5,182 confirmed cases across 45 states and Washington, DC. A PAHO review this week will determine whether continuous transmission has cost the US its measles-elimination status.

Global cholera emergency WHO reports more than 308,000 cholera and acute watery-diarrhoea cases and over 3,000 deaths worldwide from January through late September, sustaining a cross-border health emergency wherever conflict, displacement and damaged water systems impede treatment and prevention.

Cuba’s power-grid collapse A national grid failure left nearly 10 million people without electricity; isolated microgrids are prioritising hospitals, water systems and emergency services, but fuel shortages and ageing plants make reliability a structural crisis.