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São Paulo, Brazil Local 16:01 · Thu · working now São Paulo's market is absorbing the sharpest foreign outflow shock since early 2021. Investors pulled 4.7 billion reais from the B3 in a single session after J.P. Morgan downgraded Brazilian equities, extending August withdrawals past 11 billion reais and erasing much of the year's inbound tally. A CNT/MDA poll showing President Lula widening his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro added electoral premium to the selloff, pushing the real toward 5.16 and lifting DI futures. With the Ibovespa back below 170,000 points, the afternoon read is a rotation away from Brazil's fiscal and political risk premium—not a comment on commodity fundamentals alone.
Valor Econômico — foreign outflows · Valor International — election pressure
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Buenos Aires, Argentina Local 16:01 · Thu · working now Buenos Aires is holding its breath for the INDEC's four p.m. release of July inflation—the print that sets pension indexation and tests whether Milei's disinflation path can survive winter tourism seasonality. City data already showed a 2.9% monthly jump, led by hotels, restaurants and recreation as vacation travel repriced sharply, while national analysts cluster between 1.9% and 2.3%. Economy Minister Luis Caputo acknowledged the risk of re-acceleration even as private consultancies debate how much of the porteño spike will map to the national basket. For the BYMA, the afternoon pivot is whether services inflation forces the central bank to keep tightening into a World Cup year.
La Nación — July CPI preview · Ambito — Caputo expectations
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New York, United States Local 15:01 · Thu · working now New York's afternoon tape is split between inflation relief and a widening energy front. July producer prices came in flat against expectations for a 0.2% gain, sending the S&P 500 through 7,800 to a fresh intraday record and cutting September Fed hike odds to roughly 31%. The counterweight arrived twice from the Gulf: Iran's military spokesman called President Trump's Hormuz control claim "nothing more than lies" Thursday, and Yemen's Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery that briefly reversed a 3% oil slide. Crude still fell on a surprise 17.4-million-barrel inventory build—a reminder that energy risk and demand destruction still frame the rally.
Al Jazeera — Hormuz rebuttal · Global Banking and Finance — PPI and Fed odds
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Toronto, Canada Local 15:01 · Thu · working now Toronto is watching Washington more than Bay Street this afternoon. Trade Minister LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette sit down with U.S. Trade Representative Greer for the second time this week with six days left before President Trump's Aug. 19 deadline to impose 50% levies on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. Ottawa rejected the latest U.S. counter-offer on sectoral tariff cuts, sources told CBC, even as both sides scramble to finalize a joint proposal for Trump before the cliff. Charette has warned that new tariffs would halt talks and force retaliation—a message that keeps the loonie and TSX energy names tethered to every embassy corridor update rather than Thursday's flat PPI relief on Wall Street.
CBC News — rejected US offer · The Globe and Mail — LeBlanc meeting
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Bogotá, Colombia Local 14:01 · Thu · working now Bogotá's morning is defined by the earthquake's closing survival window. Rescue crews entered what Cali Mayor Eder called the "final phase" Thursday as the 72-hour mark nears on the century's strongest Colombian quake, with the confirmed death toll at 265 and nearly 500 still missing. International USAR teams from the United States, Israel, Mexico and elsewhere have joined Colombian brigades across Cali and Pereira, where rescuers pulled Daniela Largo alive after 36 hours under rubble. President de la Espriella's economic emergency decree and three days of national mourning frame the policy response, but the BVC's immediate question is how quickly coffee-belt infrastructure and Andean logistics can restart once the search phase ends.
Al Jazeera — final rescue phase · El Tiempo — international aid
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Mexico City, Mexico Local 13:01 · Thu · working now Mexico City is parsing a two-speed growth story. INEGI's flash estimate showed GDP expanding 1.5% in the second quarter, reversing the first quarter's 0.6% contraction and beating consensus with broad gains across agriculture, industry and services. Yet Citi México cut its full-year forecast to 1.3% Thursday, citing USMCA uncertainty and weak public investment as brakes on the second half. A coalition of economists from UNAM, CIDE and Tec de Monterrey is preparing an agenda for Hacienda and Congress calling for legal certainty and quality investment—an implicit critique that nearshoring tailwinds alone cannot offset tariff diplomacy and fiscal consolidation ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Ambito — Q2 GDP rebound · El CEO — Citi growth cut
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Chicago, United States Local 14:01 · Thu · working now Chicago's business pages split between Main Street housing and global dealmaking. JPMorgan Chase unveiled a major affordable-housing financing push aimed squarely at the city, while Endeavor's Ari Emanuel is pursuing a reported $6 billion acquisition spanning Broadway and West End theaters—a bet that live entertainment can be consolidated like streaming assets. On the macro desk, flat July PPI data landed before the cash open, easing Midwest rate-hike fears even as Richmond Fed President Barkin called further tightening an "open question" and Cleveland's Hammack reiterated her call for an immediate hike. For a city that opens America's futures week, the through-line is capital hunting yield in real assets while the Fed's hawk-dove split keeps CME rate contracts volatile.
Crain's — JPMorgan housing · Crain's — Emanuel theater bid
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Los Angeles, United States Local 12:01 · Thu · working now Los Angeles is feeling the Iran war through the pump more than the pier. EIA data put metro gasoline near $5.42 a gallon even as Thursday's 17.4-million-barrel crude inventory build sent oil futures down more than 2%—a split that matters for LAX jet-fuel contracts and the port complex's drayage fleet. Reports that Yemen's Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery briefly reversed the slide, underscoring how Red Sea and Hormuz risk keeps West Coast fuel markets on edge. Executive director Gene Seroka has long argued that transpacific container routes remain insulated from Hormuz chaos, but Southern California's afternoon calculus is whether cheaper crude eventually reaches retail—or whether refinery margins and war premiums keep logistics costs elevated through the back-to-school shipping season.
EIA — LA gasoline prices · Reuters — Houthi oil reaction
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San Francisco, United States Local 12:01 · Thu · working now San Francisco's venture corridor is pricing the largest IPO ever. Investors tell the Financial Times that Anthropic could debut in October at a $2 trillion valuation or higher—eclipsing SpaceX's June listing—with backers projecting annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end. The Claude maker confidentially filed in June and remains in a quiet period, but Thursday's flat PPI print and semiconductor rally give public-market comparables fresh momentum. For Bay Area AI infrastructure, the question is whether a record listing unlocks secondary liquidity across the stack or concentrates capital in a single frontier-model winner while OpenAI reportedly delays its own offering.
Fortune — Anthropic IPO target · Quartz — revenue projections
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Dubai, United Arab Emirates Local 23:01 · Thu · after hours Dubai's energy corridor absorbed another jolt from the Red Sea front. Yemen's Houthis claimed Thursday they struck Saudi Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery with two drones—the latest in a series of attacks on a plant already offline since late July—with Riyadh offering no immediate confirmation. Brent briefly pared a session that had seen crude slide more than 3% on a surprise U.S. inventory build, a reminder that Gulf refining risk extends beyond the Hormuz choke point. For a hub that prices LNG, shipping insurance and regional equities off Middle East stability, the afternoon question is whether repeated strikes on Saudi infrastructure keep a war premium in oil even as demand forecasts soften.
Anadolu Agency — Houthi claim · Reuters — oil reaction
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Frankfurt, Germany Local 21:01 · Thu · after hours Frankfurt's record chase ran out of breath. The DAX opened with Asian tailwinds and flat U.S. PPI relief but closed down 0.1% at 26,300 after profit-taking set in below Wednesday's all-time intraday high of 26,573. Traders now price only about a 35% chance of a September Fed hike, yet thin volumes—just 40 million shares traded across two sessions earlier this week—have left strategists warning that the rally lacks a broad buyer base. For the eurozone's benchmark, the through-line is familiar: strong earnings and softer U.S. inflation support the trend, but Hormuz uncertainty and energy volatility still cap conviction at the highs.
tagesschau — DAX close · IT Boltwise — thin volumes
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London, United Kingdom Local 20:01 · Thu · after hours London closed on a split tape that underscored how geopolitics still trumps domestic resilience. The FTSE 100 fell 0.6% to 10,772 despite second-quarter GDP advancing 0.4% as expected, with miners absorbing the heaviest selling: Rio Tinto, Fresnillo and Antofagasta all traded ex-dividend or flagged weaker output. Housebuilders and insurers offered a counterweight as gilt yields eased, but the session's message is that metal-price weakness and Middle East supply anxiety outweigh a steady growth print. For a market that bridges Asia's chip rally and New York's inflation relief, the afternoon pivot is whether falling oil can keep supporting domestic cyclicals without a recovery in basic resources.
Evening Standard — FTSE miners · FXStreet — sterling and GDP
