Friday, August 21, 2026 RSS
News AI & Compute Aug 21 CAPITAL

Alibaba's AI Spend Hits Profit Before Payoff

Alibaba's net income fell 75% as capital spending on AI jumped 75%. Revenue still rose 9%, and cloud accelerated to 45% growth. The paradox is China's tech spend in one print: the five-year plan demands the racks; the ADR market wants the payoff first.

libaba's net income fell 75 percent as capital spending on AI jumped 75 percent. That rhyme is the print. For the quarter ended June 30, profit dropped to about 10.5 billion yuan from 43.1 billion a year earlier. Revenue still rose 9 percent, to 268.95 billion yuan, a hair above the LSEG consensus. U.S.-listed shares sold off as much as 4 percent. The cloud grew. The P&L did not. Cloud Intelligence — Alibaba's AI and compute sleeve — accelerated to 45 percent growth, 48.44 billion yuan. AI-related product revenue posted a twelfth consecutive quarter of triple-digit gains. CEO Eddie Wu called it commercialization of a full-stack. The ADR market called it an invoice. Beijing Wants Racks. The Tape Wants a Register.

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Edition · briefing

Upfront

Filed · Fri, Aug 21, 8:01 PM UTC

  • The Kryvyi Rih Massacre Russia double-taps the Soniachna Halereia mall in Zelenskyy's hometown Friday afternoon with low-flying Shahed drones about 30 minutes apart as rescuers arrive; Dnipropetrovsk regional head Oleksandr Hanzha raises the toll to 15 dead and 130 injured, including 23 children — with Vilkul earlier reporting missing still unreachable — and Zelenskyy brands the strike "absolutely cynical and despicable," calling it a terrorist act.

  • The Crimea Blackout Occupied Crimea took another overnight energy hit into Friday as monitors logged more than 15 explosions near Simferopol within about 20 minutes and jet-powered drones toward the Tavriyska thermal plant; Russian-controlled utilities and ATESH cited mass outages in Sevastopol, Dzhankoy, Simferopol, and later Kerch a day after the Taman 500-kV bridge fire blacked out the peninsula.

  • The Perm Reach Zelensky confirms Friday that Ukrainian deep strikes hit Lukoil's Permnefteorgsintez refinery more than 1,600 km from the border and the Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, with OSINT showing fire at the plant; Russia claimed drones downed overnight as flights were restricted at Perm's Bolshoye Savino Airport.

  • The Strength Pitch Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian says Friday it is better to end the war "today" while Tehran is in a "position of strength and dignity," even as the June MoU's 60-day window has lapsed; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismisses Trump's "economic D-Day" as doomed to fail, while Armed Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi vows a "crushing… devastating" response to new U.S. threats.

  • The Economic D-Day China's foreign ministry rejects Trump's "economic D-Day" Friday, with spokesperson Lin Jian saying sanctions do not help solve the issue, after Bessent told CNBC Thursday the U.S. will impose the "toughest sanctions in history" toward an Aug. 24 press conference and warned secondary penalties for any country buying Iranian oil; Brent trades near $93.28–$93.40 Friday — still up roughly 5–6% on the week — after settling near $93.78 Thursday.

  • The Hormuz Claim Trump reiterates this week that the U.S. has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and will "keep it," even as Kpler data show just seven commodity ships transited Thursday — a fraction of the pre-war ~130-a-day pace, with no VLCCs or LNG tankers in the mix — and Iran still claims the strait stays shut pending U.S. concessions.

  • The Ulchi Curtain Ulchi Freedom Shield ends Friday a week early at Trump's order as North Korea's Thursday barrage of about 10 short-range ballistic missiles from the Pyongyang area toward eastern waters answers the diplomacy pitch; Kim Yo Jong says the cut is not enough to restart talks, while Wang Yi, in Seoul, urged the U.S. to abandon what Beijing calls a "hostile" North Korea policy.

Markets & finance · levels

Markets

Snapshot · Aug 21, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC · vs 5-day average on the map · ETF board · extended prints 20

Below 5d In line Above 5d halftone · vs 5-day avg
  • S&P 500 SPY · New York

    765.25

    -0.06% day -0.29% 5d avg
  • Dow DIA · New York

    531.92

    -0.06% day -0.06% 5d avg
  • Nasdaq QQQ · New York

    712.85

    -0.08% day -0.66% 5d avg
  • Canada EWC · Toronto

    62.36

    0.00% day +0.67% 5d avg
  • Mexico EWW · Mexico City

    77.38

    0.00% day +2.52% 5d avg
  • Brazil EWZ · São Paulo

    35.07

    +0.03% day +2.47% 5d avg
  • UK EWU · London

    48.94

    0.00% day +0.96% 5d avg
  • Germany EWG · Frankfurt

    44.20

    0.00% day +0.55% 5d avg
  • France EWQ · Paris

    47.00

    0.00% day +0.03% 5d avg
  • South Africa EZA · Johannesburg

    72.51

    0.00% day +4.01% 5d avg
  • Japan EWJ · Tokyo

    95.24

    +0.06% day -0.33% 5d avg
  • Korea EWY · Seoul

    178.53

    +0.11% day +0.74% 5d avg
  • Hong Kong EWH · Hong Kong

    23.35

    0.00% day +2.30% 5d avg
  • China MCHI · Shanghai

    55.66

    0.00% day +0.64% 5d avg
  • Taiwan EWT · Taipei

    104.30

    0.00% day -0.72% 5d avg
  • Australia EWA · Sydney

    30.14

    0.00% day +1.13% 5d avg
  • New Zealand ENZL · Auckland

    48.71

    0.00% day +1.81% 5d avg
  • India INDA · Mumbai

    49.64

    0.00% day +0.21% 5d avg
  • Indonesia EIDO · Jakarta

    12.77

    0.00% day +1.33% 5d avg
  • Malaysia EWM · Kuala Lumpur

    28.66

    0.00% day +0.99% 5d avg

Edition · desks

World

Briefing · Fri, Aug 21, 8:02 PM UTC

  • São Paulo, Brazil Local 17:02 · Fri · working now São Paulo’s Friday bid is election beta on an EM-friendly dollar: Ibovespa punches through 170,000 as banks and Vale lead, with Folha tracking the dollar toward R$5.15 ahead of the first post-campaign Datafolha due after the cash close. Cyclone winds keep the session physical as well as political; Hormuz oil and fiscal skepticism still cap how far the rally travels into the weekend.

    Valor — Ibovespa with Vale, lower rates · Folha — dollar and Datafolha watch · G1 — Datafolha after 18:40

  • Buenos Aires, Argentina Local 17:02 · Fri · working now Buenos Aires finally gets a one-day country-risk snap lower — to about 506 after fourteen rising sessions — but August’s ~20% climb and household arrears still dominate the tape. Milei’s live brief keeps bank delinquency and 2027 alliance talk in the foreground; Friday’s bond bounce is relief, not a reset of the pre-election risk premium.

    A24 — country risk to 506 · Clarín — August risk climb · La Nación — Milei live: arrears, alliances

  • New York, United States Local 16:02 · Fri · working now New York’s Friday afternoon is damage control after Thursday’s bond-and-Walmart hit: Treasury buybacks bought only a day of calm, Walmart’s weakest U.S. comps in six years reset consumer beta, and China just rejected Trump’s economic D-Day as Bessent tees Monday’s Iran sanctions briefing. Brent eases toward the low $93s while still up on the week — energy inflation and long yields remain the twin overheads into the close.

    WSJ — stocks and bonds slide · WSJ — Walmart comps miss · CNN — China rejects economic D-Day

  • Toronto, Canada Local 16:02 · Fri · working now Toronto’s Friday is a race to finalize Trump’s tentative Canada deal before the tariff pause expires: sources say autos would lock in at 15%, steel and aluminum would ease, and Carney is asking premiers to restock U.S. alcohol and unwind procurement bans. Provincial pushback — and a Friday-night document deadline — means Bay Street is trading relief that can still vanish if the text slips.

    Globe — tariff pause and tentative deal · Globe — 15% auto tariff lock-in · CBC — draft framework details

  • Bogotá, Colombia Local 15:02 · Fri · working now Bogotá’s Friday fiscal fight is quake politics: guilds and the Concejo keep pressing Galán to pause the district tax reform while a national emergency frames roughly COP 30 trillion in rebuild costs. With more than COP 7.6 trillion already stuck in unpaid city arrears, merchants argue new predial and lighting levies are the wrong signal while reconstruction — not revenue ambition — sets the capital’s near-term pricing.

    El Espectador — pause tax reform · Infobae — Fenalco backs withdrawal · El Tiempo — reform key points

  • Mexico City, Mexico Local 14:02 · Fri · working now Mexico City’s Friday tape is a strong peso meeting expensive capital: the currency holds under 17 per dollar even as El Economista flags global long rates as a silent tax on nearshoring and energy projects. Bessent’s Treasury buybacks bought only fleeting U.S. relief; for Banxico and FDI desks, FX strength is cold comfort if discount rates stay at two-decade highs.

    El Economista — long rates risk · Milenio — peso under 17 · El Financiero — Citi FX survey

  • Chicago, United States Local 15:02 · Fri · working now Chicago’s Friday pit is $5 corn meeting legal risk: CBOT corn fades from Thursday’s 18-month high but still heads for a weekly gain as Pro Farmer tour yields keep supply anxiety alive, while Crain’s flags local firms tied to the Mark Walter probe. For ag desks, the psychological $5 line matters more than the single-session fade; for Loop finance, the probe is a franchise overhang into the weekend.

    Crain's — Mark Walter probe firms · Farm Policy News — corn above $5 · Pro Farmer — crop tour yields

  • Los Angeles, United States Local 13:02 · Fri · working now Los Angeles’s Friday is studio politics colliding with street policy: Mayor Bass urges Paramount and AG Bonta to settle the multistate antitrust suit even as a county study prices roughly 4,500 local jobs and $2.78 billion of economic value at risk, while council lifts selected encampment bans in Hollywood and Echo Park. For entertainment payrolls, uncertainty itself is the shutdown — a March 2027 trial date and a post–Oct. 1 ticking fee keep productions on ice.

    THR — Bass settlement call · LA Times — county jobs study · LAist — encampment ban repeal

  • San Francisco, United States Local 13:02 · Fri · working now San Francisco’s Friday is orbital capital meeting a headcount bruise: Starcloud raises a $250 million extension at a $2.3 billion valuation — with Nvidia in the round — to build AI inference satellites as launch slots tighten, even as CBRE finds New York has passed the Bay Area on total tech jobs. The Bay still leads AI-specific roles; the message for local desks is that compute is going vertical while talent geography is rebalancing east.

    TechCrunch — Starcloud $250M · CNBC — NYC vs Bay Area tech talent · CNBC — SF still leads AI roles

  • Frankfurt, Germany Local 22:02 · Fri · after hours Frankfurt’s Friday close pairs a manufacturing PMI surge to 54.1 — a 51-month high — with a sharper winter risk: gas storage at a record mid-August low near 49%. Composite activity holds just above 51 as services sink to 48.5; for ECB pricing desks, factory optimism is secondary to Hormuz-driven energy costs and a storage gap that keeps TTF elevated into autumn.

    Handelsblatt — gas storage record low · Reuters — German PMI flash · Handelsblatt — DAX near 26,000

  • Lagos, Nigeria Local 21:02 · Fri · after hours Lagos’s Friday close is infrastructure finance meeting equity take-profit: federal and state officials pitch a path toward roughly 3,500 MW for a city still starved of stable grid power, while the NGX extends an eight-session slide and sheds about N440 billion. Coastal-road vandalism arrests underscore that physical security still prices into every Lagos power and logistics story.

    ThisDay — 3,500MW Lagos power target · ThisDay — NGX eight-session sell-off · Punch — coastal highway vandalism

  • London, United Kingdom Local 21:02 · Fri · after hours London’s Friday close is energy inflation with a retail miss: FTSE lifts on miners as metals offset a 0.5% July retail-sales drop and JD Sports’ profit warning, while gilts stay elevated and Brent slips toward the low $93s but remains up roughly 5% on the week. City desks are pricing Hormuz logistics into BP/Shell support and consumer-stock drag—not a clean risk-on end to the week.

    Reuters — UK retail sales July · ADVFN — FTSE miners vs retail · Reuters — JD Sports profit cut

Markets & finance · instrument

Flight Deck

Read top to bottom: regime and instruments (risk score, implied sleeve flows, Fed liquidity, breadth, macro gauges), then decision surface (which stories the market is pricing and whether cross-asset relationships are strained). Flow bars estimate the dollar value each sleeve gained or lost on the day (fund assets × return) — not investor deposits or withdrawals. Liquidity impulse is a weekly H.4.1 print (Fed BS − TGA − RRP) labeled with its Wednesday window — not an overnight flip. Reserve calm/tight is a same-day SOFR−IORB cross-check and does not replace the impulse.

Snapshot · Aug 21, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC · FMP tape + FRED macro

Risk environment

58 /100

Liquidity

Steady

−$3.5B impulse · weekly Aug 12→Aug 19

Fed BS runoff

Flows

Inflow

net across board

Breadth

Broad

82% above 200DMA

Risk-On
Capital flow map implied move · AUM × day return · vol vs 20d norm
  • US equities SPY
    +$3.2B 0.8×
  • Nasdaq QQQ
    +$1.7B 0.8×
  • Small caps IWM
    +$617M 1.2×
  • Equal-weight S&P RSP
    +$629M 0.7×
  • Semiconductors SMH
    −$265M 0.8×
  • Energy XLE
    −$85M 1.1×
  • Long Treasuries TLT
    −$165M 0.7×
  • Agg bonds AGG
    −$184M 0.7×
  • Gold GLD
    +$2.9B 1.6×
  • Bitcoin ETFs IBIT
    +$3.1B 2.8×
  • T-bill cash SGOV
    +$36M 0.9×
Liquidity weekly Aug 12→Aug 19
Contracting Expanding

Steady −$3.5B confirmed

H.4.1 window · Aug 12→Aug 19 · Fed BS runoff

Intraweek estimate −$2.6B · Fed BS accruing since Aug 19

Components

  • Fed BS weekly −$14.3B as of Aug 19 · +2d accrual −$4.1B
  • TGA daily · DTS −$10.3B weekly Aug 19 · DTS Aug 20
  • RRP daily −$408M window Aug 12→ Aug 19

Reserve stress · same-day check

Reserves calm SOFR−IORB -2bp

SOMA holdings · NY Fed

+$4.1B week to Aug 19

Participation · S&P +0.40% , 82% above 200DMA

  • Mega-cap +0.40%
  • Avg stock +0.63%
Macro tape
  • 10Y treasury

    4.65%

    ↓ -6bp

  • Broad dollar

    118.90

    ↓ -0.28

  • VIX

    15.17

    ↓ -0.84

  • S&P vs 200DMA

    +8.27%

    stretch

Decision surface

Each card is a market story. Fund is belief from news and fundamentals; Tape is what prices are doing; Blend mixes the two. A Fund–Tape gap means story and market disagree. vs Prior marks confirming / fighting bellwethers — not a forecast. Stress scores cross-asset relationship strain, not drawdown size.

narratives · relationship stress · report 2026-08-19, generated Wed, Aug 19, 5:07 PM UTC
  • Composite

    35%

  • Session

    20%

  • Weekly

    46%

  • Structural

    48%

  • AI Capex Supercyclesector

    72%blend

    Fund78%
    Tape62%

    Tape NVDA -0.24%, QQQ -0.03%, SMH -1.13%

    vs Prior Fighting NVDA, SMH

  • Reflation / Dollar Debasementmacro

    70%blend

    Fund75%
    Tape63%

    Tape GLD +3.48%, UUP -0.84%, TLT +1.29%

    vs Prior Confirming GLD, UUP · Fighting TLT

  • Soft Landingmacro

    29%blend

    Fund5%
    Tape66%

    Tape HYG +0.21%, XLF +0.01%, IWM +0.68%

    vs Prior Confirming HYG, IWM

  • Energy / Inflation Premiummacro

    80%blend

    Fund85%
    Tape73%

    Tape USO +1.79%, XLE +0.27%, GLD +3.48%

    vs Prior Confirming USO, XLE, GLD

Business wire

  • Platform Compliance Tax TikTok's $400 million DOJ children's-privacy settlement lands as Apple cuts Vision Pro and Siri headcount and Meta faces another public reckoning over product and trust. Big Tech's Friday story is less about growth multiples than about regulatory cash, product triage, and which AI bets still get funded.

  • Retail Payments Pivot Walmart finally opens U.S. stores to Apple Pay and Google Pay just as its comps scare still hangs over consumer stocks. The world's largest retailer is conceding mobile-wallet share even while shoppers feel gas and inflation pressure — a payments win for platforms and a demand warning for equities.

  • Federal Contract Gravity Oracle's VA contract upsizing by roughly $17 billion and Cleveland-Cliffs' Washington win show how procurement and industrial policy still move single-name tape. Defense-adjacent and health-IT winners are pricing political access as carefully as earnings.

  • AI Hardware Whipsaw TSMC firms ahead of Nvidia's next demand test while Marvell plunges after a two-day AI-chip surge. The semiconductor complex remains hypersensitive to any Google or custom-ASIC headline, with harness and networking narratives competing with pure GPU scarcity stories.

  • China Auto Compliance Tesla's near-3-million-unit China recall over door handles and monitoring systems is a scale event for Beijing regulators and for Tesla's largest market. Quality and ADAS compliance remain a standing tax on EV multiples even when the cybertruck cycle grabs U.S. attention.

  • Debt And Crypto Crosscurrents Dalio's warning that Bessent's buybacks telegraph a nearer debt crisis sits beside Bitcoin's push toward $80,000. Hard-asset and crypto bids are absorbing fiscal anxiety even as traditional risk assets digest Walmart-style consumer softness.

Market news

  • Consumer Split Screen Walmart’s comps scare and JD Sports’ North America miss paint a stressed mid-market consumer, while Buckle, BJ’s, and Ross Stores still clear bars in off-price and club channels. Retail tape is no longer one trade — value formats and selective mall concepts are diverging from big-box and athleisure weakness.

  • Index And China Tech Reddit’s S&P 500 inclusion is a passive-flow event for a still-young public name, while KE Holdings’ profit resilience despite softer revenue keeps China housing-adjacent tech in the EM mix. Both stories are about index and liquidity mechanics as much as fundamentals.

  • Hardware And Memory Ubiquiti’s clean Q4 and BMO’s Micron Outperform initiation keep networking and memory on the AI-infrastructure shopping list. These are relative-strength sleeves even when megacap software news dominates headlines.

  • Metals Bid Continues AngloGold’s bounce with strong Q2 optics fits a week where miners and bullion proxies led when growth equities hesitated. Hard assets remain the hedge of choice while long yields and Hormuz risk stay elevated.

  • Auto Aftermarket Soft Patch Advance Auto Parts takes another price-target cut as DIY sales fade — a reminder that not every consumer discretionary name is sharing the metals or club-retail bid.

  • Biotech Catalyst Watch Wedbush lifts Scholar Rock ahead of a key FDA decision, putting a clinical catalyst on the specialty-pharma calendar beside the broader retail and tech tape.

Sector echo

Where the tape is moving

S&P -0.11% · 5d -0.91% · 21d +3.61% · cap-weighted sleeves · equal-weight names · P/E

Sectors

  • Tech Fade

    XLK -0.04%

    1. 1d -0.04%
    2. 5d -3.66%
    3. 21d +4.25%

    names -0.70% PE 44× dear

    Semiconductors -1.36%

  • Comm Split

    XLC -0.15%

    1. 1d -0.15%
    2. 5d +0.52%
    3. 21d +4.80%

    names +0.71% PE 20× cheap

    Publishing +1.70%

  • Disc Split

    XLY -0.27%

    1. 1d -0.27%
    2. 5d +1.09%
    3. 21d +7.87%

    names +1.10% PE 70× dear

    Auto - Manufacturers +4.51%

  • Staples Fade

    XLP +0.03%

    1. 1d +0.03%
    2. 5d +1.55%
    3. 21d +2.21%

    names +0.40% PE 34× dear

    Grocery Stores +1.69%

  • Finance Fade

    XLF -0.07%

    1. 1d -0.07%
    2. 5d -0.19%
    3. 21d +2.06%

    names +1.03% PE 22× cheap

    Financial - Capital Markets +2.91%

  • Energy Split

    XLE -0.16%

    1. 1d -0.16%
    2. 5d +1.69%
    3. 21d +6.74%

    names -0.50% PE 17× cheap

    Oil & Gas Integrated -2.79%

  • Health Split

    XLV -0.10%

    1. 1d -0.10%
    2. 5d +4.53%
    3. 21d +7.41%

    names +1.00% PE 22×

    Medical - Specialties +3.27%

  • Industrials Fade

    XLI -0.12%

    1. 1d -0.12%
    2. 5d -3.26%
    3. 21d -1.32%

    names +0.47% PE 20× cheap

    Industrial Materials +6.13%

  • Materials Split

    XLB -0.13%

    1. 1d -0.13%
    2. 5d +2.49%
    3. 21d +4.45%

    names +0.30% PE 25×

    Agricultural Inputs -3.26%

  • REITs Fade

    XLRE -0.06%

    1. 1d -0.06%
    2. 5d +0.56%
    3. 21d -1.89%

    names -2.30% PE 28×

    REIT - Specialty -2.27%

  • Utilities Fade

    XLU -0.09%

    1. 1d -0.09%
    2. 5d -3.21%
    3. 21d -7.63%

    names -1.91% PE 29× dear

    Independent Power Producers -1.01%

Fault lines

  • Semis Grind

    SMH -0.06%

    1. 1d -0.06%
    2. 5d -5.66%
    3. 21d -0.14%

    Semiconductors -1.36%

  • Regionals Fade

    KRE -0.01%

    1. 1d -0.01%
    2. 5d -3.27%
    3. 21d -1.15%

    REIT - Mortgage -0.64%

  • E&P Fade

    XOP -0.07%

    1. 1d -0.07%
    2. 5d +3.33%
    3. 21d +8.85%

    Oil & Gas Equipment & Services -0.80%

  • Defense Grind

    ITA -0.18%

    1. 1d -0.18%
    2. 5d -5.50%
    3. 21d -1.15%

    Aerospace & Defense +0.74%

  • Miners Split

    GDX -0.18%

    1. 1d -0.18%
    2. 5d +11.86%
    3. 21d +36.63%

    Other Precious Metals +2.08%

  • Builders Grind

    XHB -0.27%

    1. 1d -0.27%
    2. 5d -1.56%
    3. 21d -1.79%

    Home Improvement -5.69%

Grind = same direction across horizons Split = session fights the month Names = equal-weight average of stocks in the sector, not the ETF

Culture

Latest · Aug 21, 8:25 PM UTC

  • London’s Carnival Weekend Notting Hill Carnival turns 60 over Aug. 29–31, with Panorama on Saturday, family/children’s day Sunday, and the adult parade Monday. Roughly two million people are expected for mas bands, sound systems, and Caribbean food along the three-mile route from Westbourne Park toward Ladbroke Grove — still free on the main days.

  • Edinburgh’s Last Days The Edinburgh Festival Fringe is in its closing week through Aug. 31, with 4,200-plus shows across nearly 300 venues and an average ticket around £13. Street programming on the Mile remains the free public face of the world’s largest arts festival as performers race final reviews and transfers.

  • Black Rock City Rises Burning Man’s Axis Mundi year opens gates Aug. 30 for a city of roughly 80,000 on the Nevada playa through Labor Day. The Man burns Sept. 5 and the Temple Sept. 6; the culture remains a gifting economy with ice and coffee as the rare on-site sales.

  • Carnival Rituals That Matter Beyond the parade photos, Carnival’s cultural spine is J’ouvert before dawn, the children’s costumes on Sunday, Dutty Mas paint, and the shared 3 p.m. Grenfell silence. Those rituals — not VIP afterparties — are why the weekend still rearranges London calendars.

  • August’s Festival Handoff Late August is a handoff from Edinburgh’s theatre-comedy dens to London’s street carnival and the desert temporary city. The shared theme is mass gathering: people flying, camping, or claiming pavement for culture that only works at crowd scale.

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Aug 16 STATE

College Isn't Free. The Risk Contract Changed.

America did not make college free. On July 1 it changed the contract between educational risk and the borrower. The Repayment Assistance Plan ties bills to income, waives unpaid interest for on-time payers, and matches principal so balances stop growing. That is risk sharing, aimed at the next student, not the last plan.

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